Currency analysts have predicted a relative stability of the cedi against the dollar, Euro and British Pound by the end of March this year – 2018.
This comes despite the depreciation of the cedi in relation to the three major trading currencies.
The perennial depreciation of the cedi has among others, impacted the planning of businesses especially by importers.
But the currency analysts say they are optimistic that recent developments in the economy will turnaround developments on the foreign exchange market.
For the CEO of the Policy Initiative for Economic Development, Daniel Amarteye Anim, government’s plans to issue a Eurobond within the next few months, should increase the supply of dollars to meet potential rise in demand.
“It is the high appetite for government borrowing from the international market to support infrastructural development. So whilst the government raises more bonds, we will have more inflows into the country. As we have inflows, our reserves increases and what it means is that the supply of foreign currency in the local economy will increase and that may also affect the performance of the cedi,” he explained.
His claims are corroborated by the General Manager of Treasury at HFC Bank, Joseph Nketsia.
He believes a reduction in demand for dollars by large importers by the end of March, should bring some respite to the high demand for the currency.
“Since the beginning of January, there has been demand for foreign currencies for goods in connection with the Christmas activities. Now that they are done selling, they have to pay for the goods so they are converting the cedi into foreign currency and transporting them to their suppliers but by the end of the month we anticipate that it will be stable” he said.
Citi Business News’ analysis on the interbank foreign exchange market shows that beginning this year; the cedi had depreciated by some 21 pesewas against the dollar.
A dollar could be sold to you at 4 cedis 42 pesewas, up from the 4 cedis 21 pesewas a year ago.
Similarly, the local currency started the year with a 19 percent and 24 percent depreciation against the British Pound and the Euro respectively.
The cedi however begun this month with a marginal rise in depreciation against the dollar of about 3 percent.
Even though it recorded marginal stability on a year on year basis to the British Pound and Euro, the currency depreciated by 17 and 16 percent, to the British Pound and Euro respectively at the beginning of this month.
As at Wednesday morning (14th February 2018), the cedi is trading at 4 cedis 42 pesewas to a dollar on the interbank foreign exchange market.
Forecasting the cedi’s performance against major currencies going forward, both Joseph Nketsia and Daniel Amarteye Anim were hopeful the cedi will regain its stability by the end of the first quarter.
“We are not expecting the dollar to go beyond 4cedis, 43 pesewas by 31st March. So it will be relatively stable”.
“At the end of the first quarter, there will be fair stability. Moving into the second quarter, I expect the cedi to perform better” they stated.
By: Jessica Ayorkor Aryee/citibusinessnews.com/Ghana